In 2026, the global market for industrial commodities is expected to exhibit general stability, with some sectors experiencing modest price appreciation. However, crude oil stands out as an anomaly, facing downward pressure due to a significant supply overhang. Trade barriers are anticipated to become more prevalent, potentially influencing price dynamics across various commodities.
The crude oil market is set for a challenging year in 2026. Substantial production increases by OPEC+ nations throughout 2025 have saturated the market, resulting in a considerable supply glut. This oversupply is projected to maintain Brent crude prices at or below the $60 per barrel mark for the entirety of 2026, diverging from the general upward trend seen in other industrial commodities.
Conversely, US sheet prices have shown surprising resilience, continuing an upward trajectory that many attribute to a robust effort in inventory restocking. This unexpected strength highlights specific regional demand dynamics that are decoupling from broader commodity trends.
Aluminum prices commenced 2026 on an elevated note, building upon momentum established in the preceding year. This surge is further amplified by renewed geopolitical risks and an overall increase in market volatility, underscoring the sensitivity of certain commodities to external factors.
Overall, while many industrial commodities are poised for slight gains or stability, the crude oil sector presents a notable exception, grappling with excess supply. The interplay of inventory cycles, trade policies, and geopolitical events will continue to shape the commodity landscape in the coming year.