Qualcomm (QCOM) is poised for a significant transformation, as highlighted by Loop Capital's recent upgrade to a 'Buy' rating. The investment firm projects the semiconductor giant is nearing a pivotal moment, with market pressures subsiding and new growth opportunities emerging. This outlook is driven by Qualcomm's strategic efforts to broaden its revenue streams beyond its traditional smartphone dominance, focusing on high-potential sectors like data centers, automotive, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Despite recent stock underperformance, these strategic shifts, coupled with an anticipated analyst day in June, are expected to rekindle investor confidence and position Qualcomm for sustained future expansion.
Analyst Gary Mobley of Loop Capital initiated the upgrade, elevating Qualcomm's rating from 'Hold' to 'Buy' and increasing the price target from $140 to $185, signaling a potential 32% upside. This decision comes despite Qualcomm's stock experiencing a challenging period, with a 13% decline over the past year and an 18% dip year-to-date. Mobley acknowledged that the company's past underperformance compared to the broader chip sector was partly due to its limited exposure to the burgeoning data center AI market, describing the recent downturn as a 'perfect storm' of unfavorable circumstances.
However, Mobley's optimism stems from several key factors. He anticipates an improvement in chip supply conditions, which is crucial for a widespread market recovery and will undoubtedly benefit Qualcomm. Furthermore, he points to the company's upcoming analyst day in early June as a critical event. During this event, Qualcomm is expected to provide comprehensive updates on its initiatives to expand beyond its core smartphone business, offering greater clarity on its strategies for the data center market and other emerging segments.
A significant part of Qualcomm's strategy involves diversifying its revenue streams to reduce reliance on the highly competitive smartphone market. Mobley believes this diversification is essential for restoring investor trust. He predicts that Qualcomm may soon announce a new major customer in the data center sector, which would substantially bolster its long-term prospects. Additionally, the analyst foresees a stabilization in Qualcomm's business relationship with Samsung, alongside a projected decrease in its dependence on Apple. Specifically, iPhone-related chip sales are expected to constitute less than 10% of Qualcomm's total revenue in the future.
Looking ahead, Qualcomm's automotive and IoT divisions are identified as strong growth engines. Mobley projects that these segments could eventually rival or even surpass the smartphone business in terms of revenue by fiscal year 2029. Qualcomm's foundational role in developing and commercializing core technologies that power much of the wireless communications industry positions it well to capitalize on these evolving market trends. These strategic expansions into new markets, coupled with a reduced dependency on traditional smartphone sales, underscore Qualcomm's commitment to innovation and long-term value creation for its shareholders.